Prasannkumar 
50 days before the final result, the vote count for the presidential elections in Brazil leaves Lula da Silva as the candidate preferred by the majority and the followers of Bolsonaro on alert
Brazil is fifty days away from beginning to know -or to know- if Jair Bolsonaro adds four more years in power or if Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva returns to the Planalto Palace. And what the polls say is clear: Lula wins. Does that mean that the election is defined? No way. There is 23 percent of people who have not yet decided on their vote, and 50 days in today’s Brazil are too many days.
Lula has a 44 percent voting intention, against 32 for Bolsonaro ahead of the October 2 elections. Faced with a possible second round, on the 30th, the former president gathers 51 percent of support against 35 for the current president. Clear figures, but not definitive before the official start of the campaign.
“Folha de São Paulo” pointed out that a 12-point disadvantage was not expected in Bolsonaro ‘s sector, especially since serious surveys had circulated in recent days that showed the president only seven points behind and narrowing the gap.
“The political core of Bolsonaro ‘s campaign had some dividends from the good economic news published in recent days. And they are real,” wrote “Folha”, a newspaper clearly opposed to the head of state, which in turn is in charge of demonizing it almost daily.
“The last index of the cost of living indicates a deflation of 0.68 percent (in July). Gasoline and diesel had more than one downward adjustment in the period. The subsidy of 600 reais (115 euros for the underprivileged) began to be paid last week.
And it is like this: Bolsonaro has lowered a series of taxes until the end of the year and reinforced social assistance among the poorest sectors of a country of 210 million inhabitants with broad social strata far removed from the middle classes. They are clearly electoral measures, but they have had a certain effect because a few weeks ago the polls showed the president in a worse situation than today.
The mobilization of progressives and intellectuals last week, with the “Letter for Democracy” that denounces Bolsonaro ‘s authoritarian drift , does not seem to have penetrated beyond the circle of the convinced, although “Piauí” magazine highlights that groups that used to remain apart they have joined this time: “In all these manifestos appear the names of people who belong to the economic elite of the country. This is a good sign. Throughout the history of Brazil the winds have not always blown in this direction” .
In those elites -the progressive and the economic one- the vote is already practically decided . It is not so much in the middle and lower classes, nor among the powerful sector of evangelists, a territory in which “Globo News” warns of a “holy war.”
“In recent weeks, the Lula campaign has detected a series of movements on social networks and at events with evangelicals unleashed by the Bolsonaro team , trying, in the opinion of the PT members, to demonize the former president. Now, the campaign de Lula will prepare a reaction. The idea is to show that the Bolsonaro team is using the pastors to impose their will on the faithful, with an excessive participation of these religious leaders in politics”.
“Lulismo achieved the monumental task of giving birth to a Bolsonaro ,” Gomes said weeks ago, accusing both candidates of arguing “who is more fascist or more communist,” but of being part of “the same social model that offers alms to the poorest and banquets for the richest”.
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